Development and External Validation of Multiparametric MRI-Derived Nomogram to Predict Risk of Pathologic Upgrade in Patients on Active Surveillance for Prostate Cancer.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE. The aim of this study was to create, develop, and externally validate a nomogram that predicts pathologic upgrade in patients on active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer using commonly available clinical and multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS. A consecutive sample of 300 patients undergoing AS for prostate cancer at the Keimyung University Dongsan Hospital between 2010 and 2016 was used to develop the nomogram. The validation cohort consisted of 150 patients undergoing active surveillance at Kyungpook National University Hospital between 2013 and 2017. The study outcome was the occurrence of pathologic upgrade in AS patients. The relationship between the clinical and mpMRI factors considered and pathologic upgrade was tested using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined using the ROC AUC. RESULTS. The overall rate of pathologic upgrade was 25.0% in the developmental cohort and 22.0% in the validation cohort. Significant variables in the models were age, prostate-specific antigen level, biopsy grade group 2, baseline Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) scores of 4 and 5, positive cores on initial biopsy greater than 1, and biopsy cores with 50% or more tumor involvement. The progression seen on mpMRI of PI-RADS score was significantly associated with pathologic upgrade. The nomogram used to predict the risk of pathologic upgrade had a predictive accuracy of 0.78 in the external validation cohort. CONCLUSION. This study developed and externally validated a nomogram that predicts the risk of pathologic upgrade on the basis of commonly used factors. This nomogram may be used to assist management decision making for patients on AS for prostate cancer.