Development and external validation of a stability machine learning model to identify wake-up stroke onset time from MRI.

Abstract

To develop and externally validate a machine learning (ML) model based on diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) to identify the onset time of wake-up stroke from MRI. DWI and FLAIR images of stroke patients within 24h of clear symptom onset in our hospital (dataset 1, n = 410) and another hospital (dataset 2, n = 177) were included. Seven ML models based on dataset 1 were developed to estimate the stroke onset time for binary classification (≤ 4.5h or > 4.5h): Random Forest (RF), support vector machine with kernel (svmLinear) or radial basis function kernel (svmRadial), Bayesian (Bayes), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), and neural network (NNET). ROC analysis and RSD were performed to evaluate the performance and stability of the ML models, respectively, and dataset 2 was externally validated to evaluate the model generalization ability using ROC analysis. svmRadial achieved the best performance with the highest AUC and accuracy (AUC: 0.896, accuracy: 0.878), and was the most stable (RSD% of AUC: 0.08, RSD% of accuracy: 0.06). The svmRadial model was then selected as the final model, and the AUC of the svmRadial model for predicting the onset time external validation was 0.895, with 0.825 accuracy. The svmRadial model using DWI + FLAIR is the most stable and generalizable for identifying the onset time of wake-up stroke patients within 4.5h of symptom onset. • Machining learning model helps clinicians to identify wake-up stroke patients within 4.5h of symptom onset. • A prospective study showed that svmRadial model based on DWI + FLAIR was the most stable in predicting the stroke onset time. • External validation showed that svmRadial model has good generalization ability in predicting the stroke onset time.