Development and Evaluation of Simulation-Based Low Carbon Mobility Assessment Models

Abstract

The transport sector is a significant contributor to global emissions. In Australia, it is the third largest source of greenhouse gases and is responsible for around 17% of emissions with passenger cars accounting for around half of all transport emissions. Governments at all levels have identified a need for a reduction in transport carbon emissions to meet their net zero emissions targets. This research aims to help decision makers estimate the carbon footprint of transport networks within their jurisdictions and evaluate the impacts of emission-reduction interventions, through development of a simulation-based low carbon mobility assessment model. The model was developed based on a framework that integrates multiple mobility components including individual travel preferences, traffic simulation, and an assessment interface to create a seamless tool for the end-user. The feasibility of the assessment model was demonstrated in a case study for a local city council in Melbourne. In one of many scenarios reported in this paper, the model showed that maintaining current levels of emissions would require a 20% reduction in vehicle trips by 2030, and a much larger reduction would be required to reduce the levels of greenhouse gas emissions and achieve desired emissions reduction targets. The paper concludes with recommendations and future directions to extend the model’s capabilities and applications.