Development and evaluation of a novel score for prediction of large oesophageal varices in patients with hepatitis c virus-induced liver cirrhosis

Abstract

Objective: Variceal bleeding is one of the most common life-threatening complications of liver cirrhosis. This study aimed to develop and evaluate a predictive score, named Platelet count, Alpha fetoprotein (AFP) and Prothrombin-INR (PAP) for the prediction of large oesophageal varices and to compare PAP score with eight common liver fibrosis scores (AAR, APRI, GUCI, BRC score, Fibro-Alfa, FIB4, Lok and Fibro-Q) in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) induced liver cirrhosis.Methods: A total of 277 patients with HCV-induced liver cirrhosis were evaluated by upper gastrointestinal endoscopy for presence of varices. Liver biochemical profile, complete blood count, prothrombin time and AFP were estimated. Stepwise linear discriminant analysis and area under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were used to create a predictive score (PAP score) comprising platelet count, AFP and prothrombin-INR.Results: PAP score predicts large oesophageal varices in patients with HCV-induced liver cirrhosis with AUC of 0.85. The optimum cut-off for predicting large oesophageal varices using ROC curve analysis was 0.27. At this point the PAP score had 77% sensitivity, 86% specificity, 94% negative predictive value and 84% efficiency. The diagnostic performances (AUC) of eight common liver fibrosis scores were 0.58 for the AAR score, 0.63 for APRI, 0.66 for GUCI, 0.68 for BRC, 0.72 for Fibro-Alfa, 0.70 for FIB4, 0.72 for Lok and 0.77 for Fibro-Q.Conclusion: PAP scores a non-invasive, inexpensive and simple score that could predict the presence of large oesophageal varices reducing the need of endoscopy. The PAP score has a superior AUC score than other scores, suggesting improved clinical value.