Development and application of a comprehensive assessment method of regional flood disaster risk based on a refined random forest model using beluga whale optimization

Abstract

To scientifically characterize regional flood disaster risks, a comprehensive regional flood disaster risk assessment index system was constructed based on the R cluster-factor analysis method. To improve the regional flood disaster risk identification ability, a random forest model refined by the beluga whale optimization (BWO-RF) was proposed. It was applied to the flood disaster risk assessment of the Jiansanjiang Branch of the Beidahuang Agricultural Reclamation Group in Heilongjiang Province, China. The research results show that the constructed BWO-RF model has strong generalization ability and optimization efficiency. The evaluation results have high rationality and stability, which fully demonstrates the applicability of the BWO-RF model in flood disaster risk assessment. On a time scale, the flood risk of the Jiansanjiang Branch shows a clear downward trend. However, due to weak economic development and insufficient water conservancy and flood control planning and construction, the risk of flood disasters fluctuates greatly in the later period, and the prevention and control situation is still not optimistic. On a spatial scale, the risk of flood disasters on farms in the northeast of Jiansanjiang Branch is low, while the risk on farms in the southwest is higher. Future flood control and drainage should focus on this area. The research results provide a technical method system for reference in flood disaster risk assessment and provide valuable information for reducing regional flood disaster risks.