Abstract
AbstractIn recent years, donors have claimed to tackle the root causes of migration from low‐income countries using aid. While others have studied the effects of aid on regular migration, we test whether aid deters irregular migration to Italy using two innovative dependent variables: asylum applications and apprehensions at border. For asylum applications, the largest significant effect implies we should expect one extra application for an additional $162,000 in bilateral aid. For border crossings, the only significant effect implies the marginal cost in bilateral aid is $1.8 million per deterred migrant. The conclusion that effect sizes are small is robust to different types of aid, measures of migration and various controls. We find robust evidence that irregular migration flows are significantly affected by conflict, poverty and the pre‐existing stocks from that country. Comparing our results to the existing aid–migration literature, we find similar effect sizes. The cost per deterred (regular) migrant is in the range $4–7 million. Statistically significant estimates for the effect of aid on regular migration are only found for sub‐samples or specific specifications. In short, aid does not deter regular or irregular migration and so should be used for other purposes.
Highlights
The displacement crisis of recent years is unprecedented: the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2017b) estimate that a record 65 million people were forced to leave their homes because of violence, conflict or natural disasters in 2016
The negative effect we consistently found in a fixed effects model from total aid on regular migration to Italy is not robust to 3SLS estimates including a third equation for non-Italian aid
A lot has been written on the link between aid and regular migration, often in response to donors' claims that aid is able to address the root causes of migration
Summary
The displacement crisis of recent years is unprecedented: the UNHCR (2017b) estimate that a record 65 million people were forced to leave their homes because of violence, conflict or natural disasters in 2016. Donors have announced large development aid packages as an attempt to address the ‘root causes’ of migration. This policy response has a long history (Carling & Talleraas, 2016), even if the scale of displacement is new. One recent example of high-profile ear-marked funds is the European Union Emergency Trust Fund for stability and addressing root causes of irregular migration and displaced persons in Africa (EUTF for Africa). With over 4 billion euro already committed, this is a major initiative, but represents only part of a consistent strategy (Latek, 2016)
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