Developing tools for municipalities to meet carbon targets

Abstract

Carbon emissions must be cut in half by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals, and cities and municipalities are at the forefront of the fight against climate change. In 2017, the energy use of buildings directly accounted for 51% of emissions in the City of Victoria and offered the greatest opportunity for the municipal government to act. Unfortunately, at this point, many cities and municipalities lack the tools and locally relevant data to make effective policy decisions. This research aims to develop a practical framework for analyzing and comparing the carbon impact of policies enacted by municipal governments, and is specifically focused on the energy consumption, and operating and embodied carbon related to single-family dwellings (SFDs) in the City of Victoria, which contains a heterogeneous building stock with construction dates ranging between 1860 to present day. The underlying model has been developed based on statistical modeling and agent-based behavioral responses to different policy actions. The agent-based modelling approach models stock development in terms of new construction, retrofit, and replacement by simulating individual decisions at the building level. The results can be used to identify optimal efforts to minimizing barriers or bottlenecks in achieving low-carbon ambitions while understanding or addressing related aspects such as housing affordability. Municipalities can use the dashboard to identify and prioritize climate solutions that meet their stringent obligations.