Developing the methodology of early diagnosis of financial crises using a system of signaling economic indicators

Abstract

Subject. This article discusses new possibilities for diagnosing the state of the country's financial and economic system and monitoring the true signs of crisis phenomena. Objectives. The article aims to develop effective methods of diagnosing and predicting financial crises in Russia using a special system of economic indicators and digital analytical tools. Methods. For the study, we used the signaling approach, non-parametric and mathematical statistics, and econometric modeling. Results. The article proposes a developed methodology for diagnosing crisis events, and tested on the basis of a sample of official data of the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, and the exchange information of the world financial markets for 1998–2019. Conclusions. The study confirmed the prospects for using a signaling approach in combination with the binary choice model and econometric modeling methods to predict the onset of crisis events in the Russian economy. The proposed methodology for diagnosing financial market crises contributes to the development of scientific approaches to the analysis and forecasting of the price dynamics of financial markets and periods of their increased volatility. Its practical implementation provides information on emerging trends in financial and economic instability and assesses the likelihood of a financial crisis.