Developing sustainable power systems by evaluating techno-economic, environmental, and social indicators from a system dynamics approach

Abstract

The transition from fossil fuel-based energy systems to renewable energy systems (RES), especially in fossil-fuel-rich countries, is a challenging process requiring consideration of numerous factors, including technological feasibility, cost-effectiveness, and public acceptance. As governments play a crucial role in determining energy and environmental policy, developing practical policymaking tools encourages them to stimulate the adoption of renewable energy technology. This study proposes a novel framework to model an energy system transition focused on the power generation and its dynamic behavior of fossil-fuel-rich countries using the System Dynamics (SD) approach and then assesses the techno-economic and environmental impacts of various economic, technical, and environmental policies using the Multi-Criteria Decision-Analysis technique (MCDA). This study aims to compare the development of renewable technologies development versus improving the current technology efficiency under three different “business as usual,” “basic development,” and “advanced development” scenarios by assessing economic, environmental, and social indicators over the horizon of 2016–2040 in fossil-rich-fuel countries. The proposed framework was applied to Iran, a fossil-fuel-rich country. According to the case study results, in all of the defined policies under three scenarios, the improvement of fossil fuel technologies received the highest score indicating that improvement in the efficiency of the current energy system by utilizing combined cycle systems is an inevitable step. Taking into account the water shortage in Iran, the second crucial stage is the implementation of water-efficient renewable technologies.