Developing resilience to climate change impacts in Antarctica: An evaluation of Antarctic Treaty System protected area policy

John Turner,Kevin A. Hughes,Peter Convey

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2021.05.023

Abstract

Antarctica is increasingly vulnerable to climate change impacts, with the continent predicted to warm by ∼4 °C by 2100 under a ‘business as usual’ greenhouse gas emission scenario. Simultaneously, human activity, primarily in the form of scientific research and the fishing and tourism industries, is putting increasing pressure on Antarctic and Southern Ocean environments and ecosystems. We evaluate the effectiveness of the Antarctic area protection system in promoting resilience to climate change impacts. Under the framework of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), terrestrial and marine areas can be designated to protect locations of scientific, environmental, historic and intrinsic value and to facilitate operational coordination to minimise environmental impact. However, climate change is not mentioned explicitly in the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty and is little considered in guidelines for the designation and management of the region’s existing protected areas. Climate change impacts are considered in only 17% of Antarctic Specially Protected Area (ASPA) management plans and, at a time when threats to Antarctic environments are increasing, the last decade has seen an 84% decline in ASPA designation rate compared with levels in the 1980s. Nevertheless, momentum is building within the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) and the ATS’s Committee on Environmental Protection (CEP) to deliver an evidence-based, integrated response to climate change that includes the use of protected areas. The Antarctic scientific community is well-placed to support decision-makers in the use of existing conservation management tools through provision of climate change forecasts at sub-regional scales, data on anticipated environmental change, and predicted species and ecosystems responses. Ultimately, reducing global greenhouse gas emission will provide the greatest protection from climate change impacts within Antarctica.

Highlights

Human activities continue to cause unprecedented impacts upon the global climate, largely through fossil fuel combustion and deforestation
Climate change is not discussed in the Protocol or in guidance doc uments concerning Historic Sites and Monuments (HSMs), inspection of Antarctic Specially Protected Area (ASPA), or consideration of new and revised draft ASPA and Antarctic Specially Managed Areas (ASMAs) management plans
The ‘(Revised) Guide to the preparation of management plans for Antarctic Specially Protected Areas’ notes that the management plan section ‘Description of values to be protected’ could describe the ‘po tential environmental changes faced by the protected area in light of rapid warming’, and gives examples including: (i) potential thinning of gla ciers, rapid retreat of ice-shelves and exposure of new ice-free terrain; (ii) impacts on sea ice-dependent penguin species by ocean warming and declining sea ice extent; (iii) increasing risk of establishment of natural colonists originating from more northerly latitudes and (iv) increased establishment of anthropogenicallyassisted non-native species

Summary

Introduction

Human activities continue to cause unprecedented impacts upon the global climate, largely through fossil fuel combustion and deforestation (see: https://www.ipcc.ch). Global action to limit greenhouse gas emissions will be essential to reduce further climate change impacts within Antarctica. Use of available conservation tools may serve to minimise additional pressures produced by human activities in the region. Protected areas have been identified as important tools to help manage the impacts of climate change on biodiversity by increasing connectivity between populations, protecting ecosystem services, conserving biodiversity and providing locations for climate change research (Hannah, 2008; Dudley et al, 2010). There has been no evaluation of the progress of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) in developing ecosystem resilience to climate change impacts through the Antarctic protected area system. While many definitions of ‘resilience’ have been developed, in this context, we use the term to mean the capacity of an ecosystem to persist or maintain function in the face of exogenous disturbance (Brand and Jax, 2007; Cote and Darling, 2010; Bastiaansen et al, 2020)

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