Developing Prediction and Forecasting modelfor coconut under weather parameters and external factors in Coimbatore district.

Abstract

Coconut is the most important plantation crop, planted in nearly every country. Coimbatore is the major producer of coconut in Tamil Nadu, followed by Thanjavur and Kanyakumari, hence this research is focused on the Coimbatore district. West Coast Tall is the popular variety which gives better yield than other varieties. This study was carried out on West Coast Tall (WCT) variety. In this paper, Coconut yield prediction model is developed under weather and external factors such as Minimum temperature, Relative Humidity, Rainfall, Plant height, Stem girth, Female flowers in inflorescence, Leaf length and Copra content. Correlation and multiple regression analysis is carried out to obtain the final form of the yield prediction model. Further, we validate this model using field-level data from TNAU coconut research farm using MATLAB and python software. The actual yield in comparison with the predicted yield using software is found to be in satisfactory agreement. In addition, we developed forecasting model for coconut for forthcoming years using proposed model.