Abstract
Models of political-ecological systems can inform policies for managing ecosystems that contain endangered species. To increase the credibility of these models, massive computation is needed to statistically estimate the model's parameters, compute confidence intervals for these parameters, determine the model's prediction error rate, and assess its sensitivity to parameter misspecification. To meet this statistical and computational challenge, this article delivers statistical algorithms and a method for constructing ecosystem management plans that are coded as distributed computing applications. These applications can run on cluster computers, the cloud, or a collection of in-house workstations. This downloadable code is used to address the challenge of conserving the East African cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus). This demonstration means that the new standard of credibility that any political-ecological model needs to meet is the one given herein.
Highlights
There is a need to acknowledge the complexity of political-ecological systems and the significant challenges to building theories of them [1,2,3]
The complexity of each of these fields coupled with an additional layer of complexity introduced by the interactions between sociological/political systems and natural systems can result in highly complex system dynamics, i.e., ones that are stiff, nonlinear, and possess feedback loops
Consistency analysis was used to estimate the parameters of the node: scenario imminent interaction with police within the Kenyan rural residents group submodel
Summary
There is a need to acknowledge the complexity of political-ecological systems and the significant challenges to building theories of them [1,2,3]. Such systems lie at the interface between social/political science and ecology. A political-ecological system is referred to as a socio-ecological system or social-ecological system (e.g., see [5]) The former term is emphasized because those political actions and processes that drive social movements are often initiated by groups seeking to gain increased political power [6]. The decline in the planet’s biodiversity [7], creates a need for credible political-ecological theory to guide the development of sustainable biodiversity conservation policies
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