Developing deep learning surrogate models for digital twins in mineral processing – A case study on data-driven multivariate multistep forecasting

Abstract

The escalating demand for environmental and social sustainability underscores the critical need for large industries such as mining and metallurgy to function optimally. Achieving optimal operation of a mineral processing plant requires timely access to information and rapid implementation of corrective actions. Essential information, such as current and future production, plays a pivotal role in enhancing process efficiency by facilitating adjustments in key aspects, including feed, control and operating variables. This study delves into the application of deep learning algorithms to forecast the gold concentrate grade of a flotation process half an hour in advance, a valuable tool for short-term decision-making, e.g., with regard to optimising the operation and process control. Multivariate time series data from a real gold processing plant was acquired through the process instrumentation and control system and augmented with simulated data at 5-minute intervals over 236 days. Surrogate models based on LSTM, GRU and CNN architectures were developed and analysed for predicting the gold grade one to six steps ahead. Evaluation of the testing dataset indicates that the CNN exhibits superior performance, achieving an average error reduction of 36 %, 45 % and 35 % for the performance metrics RMSE, MAE and MAPE respectively compared to the baseline model. These findings reveal the high potential of deep learning surrogate methods for accurately forecasting process outputs, enabling effective data-driven process control and optimisation strategies.