Developing carbon dioxide removal policy and anticipatory perspectives in the United Kingdom and United States

Abstract

The deployment of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) to GtCO2 scale by the mid-century is integral to realising net zero. Some CDR methods are technically maturing whilst some are in the early stages of innovation. At the same time, first mover nations are implementing policy and regulatory frameworks to establish this sector. Policy analysis around CDR has therefore become an area of focus as a function of its importance in establishing, developing and scaling a just, equitable and sustainable net zero transition. Policy development for sustainable transitions tends to use consolidative modelling approaches. These, often protracted, analyses can become quickly outdated in dynamic fast-moving sectors, and be unable to manage the multiple objectives that actors seek when innovating. The innovation rate required to scale the CDR sector and the extent of uncertainty to realise net zero, questions the applicability of these approaches.This research proposes a novel rapid policy analysis process, based on the decision theatre format, that uses strategic foresight to develop anticipatory, values-based CDR policy insights. This contribution prototypes this rapid approach on two pioneer national CDR developers - the United Kingdom and United States. Through its application, the method identifies opportunities for globally collaborative CDR policy intervention - a roadmap, a coordination hub, and agile policy processes - supported by regional policy specialisations - coordinating offices, measurement standards, and public capacity building - to achieve GtCO2 scale CDR deployment. Most importantly, the proposed approach provides a rapid method for sustainable transitions policy analysis in contexts of deep uncertainty.