Developing Average Run Length for Monitoring Changes in the Mean on the Presence of Long Memory under Seasonal Fractionally Integrated MAX Model

Abstract

The cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart can sensitively detect small-to-moderate shifts in the process mean. The average run length (ARL) is a popular technique used to determine the performance of a control chart. Recently, several researchers investigated the performance of processes on a CUSUM control chart by evaluating the ARL using either Monte Carlo simulation or Markov chain. As these methods only yield approximate results, we developed solutions for the exact ARL by using explicit formulas based on an integral equation (IE) for studying the performance of a CUSUM control chart running a long-memory process with exponential white noise. The long-memory process observations are derived from a seasonal fractionally integrated MAX model while focusing on X. The existence and uniqueness of the solution for calculating the ARL via explicit formulas were proved by using Banach's fixed-point theorem. The accuracy percentage of the explicit formulas against the approximate ARL obtained via the numerical IE method was greater than 99%, which indicates excellent agreement between the two methods. An important conclusion of this study is that the proposed solution for the ARL using explicit formulas could sensitively detect changes in the process mean on a CUSUM control chart in this situation. Finally, an illustrative case study is provided to show the efficacy of the proposed explicit formulas with processes involving real data.