Developing Asia – Dynamic but fractured

Abstract

In the past seventy–five years, developing Asia has transformed more rapidly than any other region. What is behind this success? Will Asia go on to lead the world, or will its rise encounter obstacles? Asia is politically diverse, with democracies, hybrid governments and numerous authoritarian regimes. Several are unstable. Paths to prosperity have varied, including the East Asian model, China’s “socialist market economy”, Indian self–reliance, and economic transition in Central Asia. Regional cooperation is chronically weak, due to the youthfulness, dispersion and diversity of Asia’s sovereign states. China’s rise threatens to fracture the region further. As the region emerges from the Covid–19 crisis, East Asia is well positioned to lead an economic recovery. However, many challenges remain. Political and governance systems are weak. Territorial disputes could escalate into open conflict, including Taiwan. Human capital is poorly developed, and populations are aging. Finally, the region could be polarized between the United States and China.