Developing and Validating a Model of Leadership Potential for VUCA Environments

Abstract

A critical succession planning challenge for organizations across industries is the identification of leadership talent in mid-management roles who are ready for executive-level positions. Despite the incredible demand for greater attention to executive succession practices and the challenges associated with unplanned executive turnover, the published research literature currently lacks a model and assessment process designed for organizations competing in highly complex and volatile business contexts. To develop theory and guide succession management practices, this paper presents a multi-phased study describing the development and validation of such a model: Learning, Engaging, Adapting, and Persevering (LEAP). The first phase presents a qualitative study that identified the leadership competencies associated with executive potential in VUCA (volatile, uncertain, chaotic, and ambiguous) work contexts. The second phase presents a quantitative study of 308 mid-level leaders and 213 of their immediate managers across four organizations in a highly complex and turbulent industry. The third phase consists of a quasi-longitudinal study examining the LEAP’s predictive validity across a series of job performance, promotion, and attitudinal outcomes. Based on convergent, concurrent, and predictive validity estimates provided across the three phases, this paper presents evidence for a theory of leadership potential, providing much needed guidance for executive succession planning. The study’s implications for theory, future research, and a range of practical applications for executive teams, board members, and HR professionals are discussed.