Developing and evaluating a risk-informed decision support system for earthquake early warning at a railway bridge

Abstract

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems provide timely information on the arrival of strong seismic waves at a site. Such information can help mitigate the consequences of earthquakes on the operation of infrastructure assets. EEW-informed mitigation actions should stem from risk-based decision-making protocols, and EEW benefits should be evaluated for the range of possible rupture scenarios that affect an asset of interest. This paper addresses these challenges specifically for railway bridges by: (1) developing a risk-informed EEW decision support system (DSS) for these assets; and (2) quantifying the effectiveness of the proposed EEW-DSS in mitigating seismic risks for railway bridges across relevant rupture scenarios. The proposed EEW-DSS combines information on site-specific seismic hazard, time-dependent EEW algorithm outputs, probabilistic seismic demand modeling, damage/derailment fragilities, and seismic loss models. These modeling components compose a multi-criteria decision-making framework. Value of information theory is then proposed to estimate the loss-mitigation benefits of the EEW-DSS, accounting for varied stakeholder risk priorities as well as dynamic lead-time/accuracy tradeoffs related to EEW performance. A railway bridge with multiple piers is adopted for the case study, which demonstrates the importance of risk-based, uncertainty-informed decision-making to the overall effectiveness of EEW in potentially reducing seismic losses.