Developing an individual tree diameter increment model of oaks using indicator variables and mixed effects in central China

Abstract

ABSTRACT Developing an individual tree diameter increment (ΔDBH) model is the basis of near-natural management of mixed, uneven-aged oak forests. This analysis used remeasurement data (2009–2014) comprising 6154 observations from 112 permanent plots in central China to develop and compare an indicator variable model (IVM) and a mixed-effect model (MEM) to estimate ΔDBH. First, a basic model was estimated using 12 potential explanatory variables. Geographical regions (GR), competition intensities (CI) and species compositions (SC) were introduced into the basal model as indicator variables or mixed effects, step by step, and then the prediction accuracy of IVM and MEM was compared. The results showed that (1) the independent variables significantly affecting ΔDBH included the reciprocal of DBH, basal area, altitude, and mean annual rainfall; (2) the introducing GR could not improve the accuracy of estimating ΔDBH, but the CI and SC could. (3) Compared with the basic model and IVM, the percentage mean absolute deviation of MEM decreased by 2.07% and 1.11%, while the root mean square error decreased by 0.06 and 0.04, respectively. The MEM including CI and SC as a random effect showed the best predictive performance and can be applied to improve the prediction of individual oak trees ΔDBH.