Developing a theory of plausibility in scenario building: Designing plausible scenarios

Abstract

Scenario planning is used by organizations and institutions to help understand futures, expand imaginations and to sensitize for changing business environments. The scenario planning process can help deal with uncertainties in an increasingly dynamic environment, particularly if they are perceived as plausible. To explore the practicalities of developing plausible scenarios we utilised a case study, and involved key stakeholders, to investigate the ‘Future of Work’ in Dunedin, Aotearoa, New Zealand. Using sensemaking analysis we show how participants utilized their individual frames of reference to interpret how plausible the scenarios were, while also constructing cues to prospectively ‘make sense’. Therefore, we contribute both to understanding how to build plausibility into scenario planning and how participants make sense of future scenarios. We propose a model, based on the sensemaking concepts of frames and cues, that supports the construction of plausible scenarios. We conclude that designing plausible scenarios, as a prospective sensemaking device, is a powerful way to encourage discussion about futures and to understand the consequences of today's activities on tomorrow's realities. Understanding how to design scenarios that are perceived as plausible from a stakeholder's perspective is crucial for building understandings of future events.