Developing a system for the initiation of projects using a Markov chain

Abstract

We performed an analysis of the peculiarities and the generalization of assessing the degree of perfection in the production systems for the development of information-management system of the evaluation and initiation of projects using a Markov chain. A hypothesis was put forward and confirmed on that the degree of perfection of a production system can be represented by using a generalized indicator of system quality, which corresponds to the level of existing risk. A model is proposed to assess the level of perfection of organizational-technical system, which includes four discrete states that correspond to the risk level ratings in the system: R1 – low risk, R2 – medium risk, R3 – high risk, R4 – extreme risk. A phenomenological reflection of the risk is a Markov chain. To construct a Markov model, we identified possible transitions in the risk degree assessments as the states of the production system. We devised a method for the identification of a Markov model by determining experimentally a matrix of transition probabilities based on data on questionnaire survey of the employees. It is proved that the size of minimal sample for a survey does not exceed 90 questionnaires for the assigned level of reliability рd=0.95 – in this case, error in the values of transition probabilities will not exceed 0.75 %. A structure of the information-management system is proposed to control the process of project initiation, in which Markov model is an element of the control loop. The key process that creates preconditions for the practical implementation of information-management system is to determine transition probabilities in the Markov chain through the technique of questionnaire survey. We examined practical aspects of the initiation and implementation of projects under conditions of acting enterprise. Results in the coordinates of estimates of the degree of risk during the year of the study demonstrated significant improvement in the evaluation by personnel of the activities that addressed labor safety. This improvement occurred due to a decreased share of workers who assessed risk as high (from 28.6 % to 22.2 %) and those who evaluated risk as extreme (from 22.4 % to 10.1 %). Judging by these data, the implemented projects can be considered successful.