Developing a socio-hydrological model to assess community sensitivity to lake degradation

Abstract

ABSTRACT The crucial challenge in arid/developed endorheic basins is to balance agricultural water demands with ecosystem health. This study addresses this dilemma by developing a semi-distributed socio-hydrological model for the basins using monthly water balance coupled with annual community sensitivity (CS)/response models. The central research question focuses on whether the degradation of lakes in the Tashk-Bakhtegan basin, our selected case study, can shift the community’s attitude towards allocating water resources for environmental rather than agricultural purposes. Given the basin’s vastness and complex water access, individuals hold diverse environmental attitudes on lake degradation. Upon model calibration, it becomes evident that downstream areas exhibit a CS variable 2.4 times higher than upstream areas, with annual fluctuations ranging from 1.15 to 6.34. Remarkably, the findings underscore a gradual transformation in downstream attitudes, where increasing CS has shifted their perspective towards prioritizing the well-being of the lake, while upstream residents continue to prioritize agro-economic benefits.