Abstract
Human error plays a pivotal rule in all aspects of engineering activities such as operation, maintenance, design, inspection and installation. Industries are faced up to various significant human errors and consequently irrecoverable loss each year, but still there is a lack of heeds to qualify as well as quantify such errors. This paper tries to estimate the probability of failure in lifting of light structures in sea by considering human errors. To do this, a strong qualifying tool such as Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) is applied to develop high risk accident scenario by considering non-linear socio-technical interaction in system. Afterwards, human error probability is calculated for each activity using the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) based on resonance that is carried out in FRAM network. Then Event Tree (ET) is conducted to assess consequences. The present study is aimed to interpret the importance of attentions to qualitative methods in implementing quantitative risk analyses to consider human error in calculation. The final outcome depicts that considering human error in the process of risk assessment will result in more accuracy and reliability in final Risk Probability Number (RPN). The developed methodology has been applied to a case study of an offshore installation.
Highlights
Risk assessment is a systematic process for analyzing and evaluating events that could affect the achievement of objectives, positively or negatively
The Human Error Probabilities (HEP) are estimated by applying the Success Likelihood Index Methodology (SLIM) process
The probability of other hazard-promoting events is calculated by using Homogeneous Poisson Process (HPP)
Summary
Risk assessment is a systematic process for analyzing and evaluating events that could affect the achievement of objectives, positively or negatively. The term semi-quantitative risk analysis is sometimes used to denote risk analyses that quantify probabilities and consequences approximately within ranges As part of these assessments, risk and reliability analysts are required to perform evaluations of human reliability in addition to the analyses of hardware systems which are the primary focus of a typical risk assessment. Where safety of substantial human actions and administrative controls are required and their need is justified, the feasibility and reliability of the actions are demonstrated qualitatively using task analysis This qualitative modelling is used to substantiate any human-based safety claims and the quantitative modelling of the probability of the associated human errors. The risk assessment is conducted for an operation as a specific resonance in the FRAM network with considering the human errors This resonance is based on variabilities of the functions in the case study of the paper. An Event Tree (ET) for provided resonance based on FRAM network is presented to evaluate the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA)
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