Developing a probability-based technique to improve the measurement of landslide vulnerability on regional roads

Abstract

Considering the uncertainty in vulnerability curves, this study employs a probabilistic technique to improve the current landslide vulnerability on roads. The uncertainty in current vulnerability was first elaborated, and slope failure and the damage caused to roads were investigated. To minimize uncertainty, subsequently, the probabilistic landslide intensity was proposed, and hired to calibrate the empirical landslide intensity. Finally, an improved vulnerability curve was developed and compared with the empirical vulnerability, in terms of the fluctuation band and residual value. Results show that the uncertainty of the improved vulnerability is significantly reduced compared with the empirical vulnerability model. In detail, the uncertainty reduction in landslide vulnerability is reflected not only in the decrease of the residual range, from 0.6 to 0.3, but in the narrowing of the fluctuation band. It provides a route for enhancing the accuracy of landslide vulnerability from a probabilistic view.