Developing a Novel Scoring System for Risk Stratification in Living Donor Liver Transplantation.

Abstract

Background: We aimed to develop a novel scoring system for risk stratification specific to living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) recipients, to improve the accuracy of predicting short-term outcomes. Methods: The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score at postoperative day 7 was collected and simplified by dichotomization, and these categories and other clinical factors were subjected to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to select independent risks in constructing a “graft-to-recipient weight ratio (GRWR)-SOFA” scoring system. Results: We enrolled 519 patients who underwent LDLT. The GRWR-SOFA score comprises a sum of six factors: cardiovascular (mean arterial pressure < 70 mmHg, scored 3), coagulation (serum platelet < 50 × 103/μL, scored 2), renal (creatinine > 1.2 mg/dL, scored 2), liver (serum total bilirubin > 5.9 mg/dL, scored 5), neurological (Glasgow coma scale < 15, scored 2), and GRWR < 0.8, scored 2. The GRWR-SOFA contained four classes: The early mortality rate at 3 months and 1 year after LDLT was 1.3% and 6.9% for class I (scores of 0–4), 9.1% and 16.7% for class II (scores of 5–8), 25.5% and 34% for class III (scores of 9–10), and 61.3% and 67.7% for class IV (scores ≥ 11), respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of GRWR-SOFA in the 3-month mortality prediction was 0.881 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.818–0.944). Conclusions: The GRWR-SOFA model demonstrates superior discriminatory power for predicting short-term mortality. It enables clinicians to identify the right level of care for distinct subgroups of patients receiving LDLT.