Developing a new predictive index for anastomotic leak following the anastomosis of esophageal atresia: preliminary results from a single centre

Abstract

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to determine a predictive index for the risk of anastomotic leak following esophageal atresia anastomosis,MethodsThis article reviewed the clinical data of 74 children with esophageal atresia in Fujian Children's hospital. The risk factors for anastomotic leak were analysed, and a new predictive index was proposed.ResultsThe incidence of anastomotic leak was 29.7% after anastomosis in 74 children with esophageal atresia. Birth weight and gap length were risk factors for anastomotic leak. Logistic regression analysis showed that birth weight (Wald 2 = 4.528, P = 0.033, OR = 0.273) was a protective factor for anastomotic leak, whereas gap length (Wald 2 = 7.057, P = 0.008, OR = 2.388) was a risk factor for anastomotic leak. The ratio of gap length to birth weight had a positive predictive effect on the occurrence of anastomotic leak (AUC = 0.732, P = 0.002).ConclusionBirth weight and gap length are important predictors of anastomotic leak in esophageal atresia. Measurement of the ratio of gap length to birth weight is a helpful predictive index for anastomotic leak following the anastomosis of esophageal atresia.