Developing A Model to Predict the Occurrence of the Cardio-Cerebrovascular Disease for the Korean Elderly using the Random Forests Algorithm

Haewon Byeon

doi:10.14569/ijacsa.2018.090962

Abstract

This study aimed to develop a model for predicting the cardio-cerebrovascular disease of the South Korean elderly using the random forests technique. This study analyzed 2,111 respondents (879 males and 1,232 females), who were age 60 or older, out of total 7,761 respondents, who completed the Seoul Welfare Panel Study. The result variable was defined as the cardio-cerebrovascular disease (e.g., hypertension, cerebral infarction, hyperlipidemia, cardiac infarction, and angina). As a result of developing a random forest-based model, the major determinants of the cardio-cerebrovascular diseases of the South Korean elderly were mean monthly household income, the highest level of education, subjective health condition, subjective friendship, subjective family relationship, smoking, regular exercise, age, marital status, gender, depression experience, economic activity, and high-risk drinking. Among them, mean monthly household income was the most important predictor of the cardio-cerebrovascular disease. Based on the developed prediction model, it is needed to develop a systematic program for preventing the cardio-cerebrovascular disease of the Korean elderly.

Highlights

The cardio-cerebrovascular diseases include cerebrovascular diseases, cardiac disorders, and vascular abnormalities
This study aimed to develop a model for predicting the cardio-cerebrovascular disease of the South Korean elderly using the random forests technique
The prevalence of cardiocerebrovascular diseases, which indicated the proportion of subjects suffering hypertension, cerebral infarction, hyperlipidemia, cardiac infarction, and angina, was 42.3% (n=894)

Summary

Introduction

The cardio-cerebrovascular diseases include cerebrovascular diseases (e.g., cerebral hemorrhage and cerebral infarction), cardiac disorders (e.g., cardiac insufficiency, angina, and cardiac infarction), and vascular abnormalities (e.g., hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and arteriosclerosis). As of 2013, the mortality due to cardiocerebrovascular diseases accounts for more than 25% of the national mortality. The cardio-cerebrovascular disease is the second leading cause of death in South Korea [1]. The cardio-cerebrovascular disease has increased by 1.35 times over the past decade and has become a critical health problem in South Korea [1]. The cardiocerebrovascular disease of the elderly is often accompanied by severe disability even if surgical treatment is successful. They tend to have a hard time to return to the society even after recovery [2]. It is essential to identify factors associated with the cardio-cerebrovascular disease and prevent them for achieving the successful aging

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