Developing a model for managing sustainable regional forest biomass resources: System dynamics-based optimization

Abstract

In Japan, the number of plantation forests that must be harvested is increasing. Therefore, it is desirable to establish an operational system with a high efficiency. When using efficient forestry machinery, it is necessary to secure a sufficient amount of operation commensurate with the cost of machines, while simultaneously considering the feasibility of the labor force. However, no previous research has presented a quantitative forestry operation management method from the viewpoint of optimizing the amount of operation on a regional forestry scale. First, a basic model that mathematically quantifies the amount of operation and changes in forest biomass by applying system dynamics (SD) was developed, and a regional forestry scenario with the labor force as a constraint was optimized. As a result of the optimization, it is suggested that the scenario will be sustainable if regional forests are managed in an area of approximately 800 ha for 10 workers. The amount of operation in the scenario was generally feasible with a limited labor force during the simulation period and was also validated against reported domestic forestry data. We conclude that the SD model can contribute to the development of a regional forest management plan tailored to local conditions. In addition, it will greatly contribute to the assessment of carbon reduction in the national forestry sector through sustainable management of local forest biomass resources.