Developing a grouped random parameter beta model to analyze drivers’ speeding behavior on urban and suburban arterials with probe speed data

Abstract

Speeding is one of the major contributing factors to traffic fatalities. Various speed management strategies have been proposed to encourage drivers to select more appropriate speeds. This study aims to explore the different effects of the speed management strategies on the speeding proportions at urban and suburban arterials. Probe speed data was used to calculate the speeding proportions. To overcome the variability of probe speed data caused by the signalized intersections, a new method was suggested to calculate the speeding proportion, and a fractional split model was estimated to adjust the probe speed data. A Beta regression model was developed to analyze the speeding proportion. A grouped random parameter modeling structure was adopted to realize the different effects of speed management strategies and other road attributes on speeding proportions by different road types. Besides, a fixed beta model was developed for the comparison. The results suggested the grouped random parameter model could provide better performance over the counterpart and could realize the different effects of road features and other contributing factors on the speeding of different roads. It is expected that the findings could help inform more appropriate road design in order to reduce speed limit violations on urban and suburban arterials.