Developing a GIS-Based Decision Rule for Sustainable Marine Aquaculture Site Selection: An Application of the Ordered Weighted Average Procedure

Abstract

Fish consumption is on the increase due to the increase in growth of the global population. Therefore, taking advantage of new methods such as marine aquaculture can be a reliable source for the production of fish in the world. It is necessary to allocate suitable sites from environmental, economic, and social points of view in the decision-making process. In this study, in order to specify suitable areas for marine aquaculture by the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) methodology in the Caspian Sea (Iran), efforts were made to incorporate the concept of risk into the GIS-based analysis. By using the OWA-based method, a model was provided which can generate marine aquaculture maps with various pessimistic or optimistic strategies. Eighteen modeling criteria (14 factors and 4 constraints) were considered to determine the appropriate areas for marine aquaculture. This was done in 6 scenarios using multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) and ordered weighted average (OWA) methodologies. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that most of the parameters affecting the marine aquaculture location in the region were as follows: Social-Economic, Water Quality, and Physical–Environmental parameters. In addition, based on Cramer’s V coefficient values for each parameter, bathymetry and distance from the coastline with the most effective and maximum temperature had the least impact on site selection of marine aquaculture. Finally, the final aggregated suitability image (FASI) of weighted linear combination (WLC) scenario was compared with existing sites for cage culture on the southern part of the Caspian Sea and the ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) value turned out to be equal to 0.69. Although the existing sites (9 farms) were almost compatible with the results of the study, their locations can be transferred to more favorable areas with less risk and the mapping risk level can be controlled and low- or high-risk sites for marine aquaculture could be determined by using the OWA method.