Abstract
Dengue is a viral mosquito-borne infection that is endemic and has become a major public health concern in the Philippines. Cases of dengue in the country have been recorded to be increasing, however, it is reported that the country lacks predictive system that could aid in the formulation of an effective approach to combat the rise of dengue cases. Various studies have reported that climatic factors can influence the transmission rate of dengue. Thus, this study aimed to predict the probability of dengue incidence in Iligan City per barangay based on the relationship of climatic factors and dengue cases using different predictive models with data from 2008 to 2017. Multiple Linear Regression, Poisson Regression, and Random Forest are integrated in a mini-system to automate the display of the prediction result. Results indicate that Random Forest works better with 73.0% accuracy result and 33.58% error percentage, with time period and mean temperature as predictive variables.
Highlights
Dengue has been an endemic infection in over 100 countries in the world, in tropical and subtropical regions
This study aimed to predict the probability of dengue incidence in Iligan City per barangay based on the relationship of climatic factors and dengue cases using different predictive models with data from 2008 to 2017
The presented research was quantitative in nature as it relied on the analysis of the secondary numerical data collected to describe and predict the probability of dengue incidence in Iligan City using predictive models
Summary
Dengue has been an endemic infection in over 100 countries in the world, in tropical and subtropical regions. In the Philippines, Dengue fever has become one of the major health problems among the populace. There were 115, 986 dengue cases recorded in the Philippines including 491 deaths reported from January 1 to July 6 2019; 86 % higher than in 2018 [3]. Incidence of Dengue was caused by several factors, one of which was the climatic conditions referring to temperature, relative rainfall, and relative humidity were reported to be important influential Dengue transmitters [4]. Studies discovered that places with high temperatures and higher rainfall such as in the Philippines had high dengue transmission rates resulting to more steady water as potential breeding grounds for mosquitoes [3]. Humidity had been a consistent, significant weather factor that provided favorable conditions for Dengue vectors [5]
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