DEUCE v1.0: a neural network for probabilistic precipitation nowcasting with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties

Abstract

Abstract. Precipitation nowcasting (forecasting locally for 0–6 h) serves both public security and industries, facilitating the mitigation of losses incurred due to, e.g., flash floods and is usually done by predicting weather radar echoes, which provide better performance than numerical weather prediction (NWP) at that scale. Probabilistic nowcasts are especially useful as they provide a desirable framework for operational decision-making. Many extrapolation-based statistical nowcasting methods exist, but they all suffer from a limited ability to capture the nonlinear growth and decay of precipitation, leading to a recent paradigm shift towards deep-learning methods which are more capable of representing these patterns. Despite its potential advantages, the application of deep learning in probabilistic nowcasting has only recently started to be explored. Here we develop a novel probabilistic precipitation nowcasting method, based on Bayesian neural networks with variational inference and the U-Net architecture, named DEUCE. The method estimates the total predictive uncertainty in the precipitation by combining estimates of the epistemic (knowledge-related and reducible) and heteroscedastic aleatoric (data-dependent and irreducible) uncertainties, using them to produce an ensemble of development scenarios for the following 60 min. DEUCE is trained and verified using Finnish Meteorological Institute radar composites compared to established classical models. Our model is found to produce both skillful and reliable probabilistic nowcasts based on various evaluation criteria. It improves the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve scores 1 %–5 % over STEPS and LINDA-P baselines and comes close to the best-performer STEPS on a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) metric. The reliability of DEUCE is demonstrated with, e.g., having the lowest expected calibration error at 20 and 25 dBZ reflectivity thresholds and coming second at 35 dBZ. On the other hand, the deterministic performance of ensemble means is found to be worse than that of extrapolation and LINDA-D baselines. Last, the composition of the predictive uncertainty is analyzed and described, with the conclusion that aleatoric uncertainty is more significant and informative than epistemic uncertainty in the DEUCE model.