Deterrence under Surveillance: Indian Space-based ISR Capabilities and Pakistan’s Nuclear Deterrence

Abstract

India is rapidly building up its space-based Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. Although Indian military assets in space are in contention to Chinese space program, they are expected to make Pakistan apprehensive about the future of its nuclear deterrence. Pakistan acquired nuclear weapons to deter its much larger and stronger archnemesis India from violating its territorial integrity. Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence and strategy is aligned with the Perfect Deterrence Theory, a diversion from Classical Deterrence Theory used in the understanding of deterrence relationship between the USA and USSR during the Cold War. The study addresses the impact of India’s space-based ISR capabilities on Pakistan nuclear deterrence and posture. The growth of Indian military space program along with its great interest and investment in supersonic cruise missiles and ballistic missile defense program indicates that India is building up its First Strike potential against Pakistan’s strategic assets and installations. The developments will have a tremendous impact on deterrence stability in South Asia as it will increase the likelihood of a nuclear escalation in future.