Deterrence Is Dead. Long Live Deterrence

Abstract

Twenty years ago philosopher Anthony Kenny (1985, ix) could confidently assert that deterrence was “the key concept for the understanding of the strategy and diplomacy of the age.” Obviously, much has transpired since Kenny made his claim. In 1989 the Berlin Wall was dismantled. Two years later, the Soviet Union disintegrated. In short order democracy was introduced into Eastern Europe and NATO expanded into what was once part of the Soviet Empire. In 1991 Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, only to be pushed out by a coalition of nations led and organized by the United States. Later in the decade, Yugoslavia imploded. Concurrently, Pakistan joined the nuclear club. Then NATO went to war with Serbia over Kosovo. The United States unilaterally abrogated the ABM Treaty and began the deployment of a largely untested national missile defense system. And, of course, on September 11, 2001, terrorists brought down the Twin Towers in an act of inconceivable violence. Within weeks the United States drove the Taliban from power in Afghanistan and, in 2003, invaded Iraq and overthrew its Baathist regime.