Deterrence by Debris: The Downside to Cleaning up Space

Abstract

Current calls to remove orbital debris come from nearly every corner, including governments, militaries, private corporations, and the scientific community. While debris poses a clear threat to space operations, and while this threat will continue to grow over time, too little energy has been spent considering the second-order effects of developing the ability to remove orbital debris. An unintended consequence of debris removal is that it would weaken one of the elements of deterrence that prevent self-interested states from engaging in more frequent kinetic antisatellite tests or taking hostile actions against orbital objects. This article examines the issue of orbital debris, connects the existence of debris to deterrence, and then offers some solutions to mitigate the weakening of deterrence in the event that debris removal becomes a reality.