Abstract
Deterrence and incapacitation effects of auto theft are estimated with a full consideration of substitution effects across crime types and across districts in a closed area in which none of the effects will leak out. It is found that the increase in the cleared rate of auto theft crime in a certain district and in other districts strongly deters the auto theft in that district, indicating that the across-district deterrence effect dominates the across-district substitution effect. The across-crime deterrence effect significantly exceeds the across-crime substitution effect for close crime (general theft), but is insignificant for distant crime (violence).
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