Deterrence and Crisis Stability – The F-35 and Joint Strike Missile’s Effect on the Norwegian Security Policy Toward Russia

Ole Marius Tørrisplass

doi:10.31374/sjms.10

Ole Marius Tørrisplass

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.31374/sjms.10

Copy DOI

Abstract

This article analyzes how the F-35 Lightning II and Joint Strike Missile (JSM) affect the Norwegian security policy toward Russia. It answers how the systems influence Norwegian deterrence and defense efforts and crisis stability in serious crises and draws conclusions on how an operational concept should look in order to best reconcile the requirements for deterrence and crisis stability. The F-35 and JSM improve Norwegian defense and deterrence by denial by contributing to situational awareness, NATO’s collective defense, joint operations, as well as operations in the air, maritime, and land domains. They also open for deterrence by punishment and may contribute to improving the crisis stability by raising the threshold for Russian aggression. However, the stabilizing effect depends on the ability to defend the F-35 bases, and an overly offensive posture may instead cause escalation and threaten the stability. The study outlines three relevant modes of operation for the F-35 during crises or war: defensive, tactically offensive, and strategically offensive. In a security crisis without NATO participation, deterrence and crisis stability may best be achieved by employing the F-35 and JSM in the defensive and, in certain circumstances, the tactically offensive mode. A war involving NATO may become a matter of national survival, and decision-makers should thus keep all options open and utilize the defensive, tactically offensive, and strategically offensive modes as required.

Highlights

Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has become increasingly assertive on the international stage and proven both willing and capable of using military force in pursuit of national interests
Russia cannot plan a military campaign around the systems, and this may influence Russian cost-benefit calculations in a way that raises the threshold for the use of military force
The F-35 and Joint Strike Missile (JSM) contribute to delaying a Russian advance more effectively and potentially denying some Russian objectives altogether

Summary

Introduction

Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has become increasingly assertive on the international stage and proven both willing and capable of using military force in pursuit of national interests. Highly precise long-range weapons favor the offensive part and make it difficult for the defender to establish strategic depth (Norwegian Ministry of Defence, 2015) States that possess these weapons gain the flexibility to engage targets in other regions without having to deploy forces between them, which means that military conflicts are less likely to be contained to one specific region (Efjestad, 2017). Since Norway cannot expect to deny a significant Russian military attack on its own, the main role of the Norwegian Armed Forces is to escalate a conflict to the level required to activate Article 5 and delay the Russian advance until NATO forces can arrive (Forsvarsdepartementet, 2016b). NATO will conduct operations to reclaim Norwegian territory, which brings the prospect of deterrence by punishment, using both conventional and nuclear weapons, to the table (Kjølberg, 2015)

F-35 Lightning II and Joint Strike Missile

A Future Norwegian Operational Concept

Conclusion