Deterministic system for earthquake early warning system based on radon gas concentration anomaly at Yogyakarta Region-Indonesia

Abstract

Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters on earth, which are the result of surging tectonic stress, and it extremely difficult to predict due to a lack of different statistical patterns required to model future occurrences. Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) said that there were 11.920 earthquakes happen in 2018 and 11.473 earthquakes in 2019. In 2018, there were 29 destructive earthquakes and one earthquake followed by a tsunami that caused 4047 people dead or lost, 6.439 people injured, 704.849 people evacuated, and thousand public facilities damage. While in 2019, there were 147 people injured, 5.025 homes damaged, and a hundred public facilities damage caused by 13 destructive earthquakes. Earthquakes prediction is necessary to reduce the risk caused by earthquakes. The purpose of this research was to predict when the earthquake would happen from the instrumentation system based on the telemonitoring of radon concentration anomaly to provide an early warning system alarm before an earthquake occurs. The methodology used in this research was built radon concentration monitoring systems that were placed near the fault around Yogyakarta-Indonesia. Radon concentration is measured every hour. Then, the author analyzed the correlation between radon gas concentration and the earthquakes happen from Sumatra until NTT. The data of earthquakes were taken from the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and Postdam Geofon. After measuring the radon gas concentration for 9 months and doing analysis, it was found that the prediction of an earthquake could be decided when 4 of 5 algorithms were confirmed. Based on the algorithm that was determined, there were 34 of 51 earthquakes that were successfully predicted and 34 of 66 true algorithms. So, the correctness of the prediction is 51,52% with an accuracy of 66,67% that the earthquake will happen 1 until 3 days later.