Abstract
Forest fires from lightnings create a tense situation in various regions of states with forested areas. It is noted that in mountainous areas this is especially important in view of the geophysical processes of lightning activity. The aim of the study is to develop a deterministic-probabilistic approach to predicting forest fire danger due to lightning activity in mountainous regions. To develop a mathematical model, the main provisions of the theory of probability and mathematical statistics, as well as the general theory of heat transfer, were used. The scientific novelty of the research is due to the complex use of probabilistic criteria and deterministic mathematical models of tree ignition by a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. The paper presents probabilistic criteria for predicting forest fire danger, taking into account the lightning activity, meteorological data, and forest growth conditions, as well as deterministic mathematical models of ignition of deciduous and coniferous trees by electric current of a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. The work uses synthetic data on the discharge parameters and characteristics of the forest-covered area, which correspond to the forest fire situation in the Republic of Altay and the Republic of Buryatia (Russian Federation). The dependences of the probability for occurrence of forest fires on various parameters have been obtained.
Highlights
Forest fires occur as a result of natural and anthropogenic causes [1]
It is proposed to focus on an integrated deterministic-probabilistic approach, when the predicting methodology is based both on probabilistic formulas and deterministic models, for example, as is done in the methodology for predicting forest fires caused by the action of focused solar radiation [13,14]
It is assumed that the level of forest fire danger is assessed from the standpoint of probability theory, and individual terms in the probabilistic criterion are assessed based on statistical data and the results of numerical modeling of the ignition of deciduous and coniferous trees by the cloud-to-ground lightning discharge
Summary
The main natural cause of forest fires is the impact of the cloud-to-ground lightning discharges on forest fuels [2]. Predicting forest fire danger in mountainous terrain has its own characteristics [6,7], which must be taken into account when developing such methods. There are various methods for predicting forest fire danger, for example, statistical [8], empirical [9], probabilistic [10], simulation [11], deterministic [12], and a number of others. It is assumed that the level of forest fire danger is assessed from the standpoint of probability theory, and individual terms in the probabilistic criterion are assessed based on statistical data and the results of numerical modeling of the ignition of deciduous and coniferous trees by the cloud-to-ground lightning discharge
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