Deterministic approach to assess landslide susceptibility and landslide activity in the Central-Western Region of Slovakia

Abstract

Quantitative assessments in landslide susceptibility evaluation are typically dominated by statistical analyses. However, this paper employs a deterministic approach to construct such maps, specifically focusing on the stability assessment of shallow landslides with slip surfaces generally not exceeding 5 m in depth at a regional scale. The study area chosen for this research is the landslide-prone region between Hlohovec and Sereď towns in the central-western part of Slovakia. Our focus is on the activation of shallow landslides, representing the youngest, third generation of landslide evolution in the area. For the stability assessment, three scenarios were considered using deterministic analysis: a scenario involving dry slopes, a scenario under partially saturated conditions, and a scenario of fully saturated slopes. This approach enables the assessment of stability conditions based on qualitative parameters derived from both field and laboratory research. The results from the deterministic analysis aid in defining different stages of activity within the landslide body. These Landslide susceptibility maps were verified directly in the field, and most landslides reactivated from 2011 to the present fell into the class with the safety factor below 1.0. In comparison with the landslide hazard map created by using bivariate statistical analysis, it was observed that 89.97% of the area is in a very high level of landslide hazard, given a safety factor below 1.0. This highlights the effectiveness of the deterministic approach in capturing the vulnerability of the region to shallow landslides.