Abstract
Abstract. In this paper, we present a deterministic approach to tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal, one of the test sites of project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). Sines has one of the most important deep-water ports, which has oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid-bulk, coal, and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures face the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING, a Non-linear Shallow Water model wIth Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages: MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level), and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, the tsunami hazard is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, maximum inundation area and run-up. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at the Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario, and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite source of Horseshoe and Marques de Pombal faults as the worst-case scenario, with wave heights of over 10 m, which reach the coast approximately 22 min after the rupture. It dominates the aggregate scenario by about 60 % of the impact area at the test site, considering maximum wave height and maximum flow depth. The HSMPF scenario inundates a total area of 3.5 km2.
Highlights
Tsunamis are low-frequency but high-impact hazards for coastal societies
Designed, we ran the model in mean higher high water (MHHW), mean sea level (MSL), and mean lower low water (MLLW) conditions to study the static influence of the tide; the result is presented in respect to the aggregate scenario
For each typical fault we considered three tide conditions: MLLW, MSL, and MHHW
Summary
Tsunamis are low-frequency but high-impact hazards for coastal societies. The striking tsunami events on 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean and on 11 March 2011 in Tohoku raised awareness due to the enormous loss of life and property. A considerable number of tsunami hazard assessment studies were published for the northeast Atlantic area. Most of these studies focus on the tsunami impact in the Gulf of Cadiz using a deterministic approach, namely Lima et al (2010), Omira et al (2010, 2011, 2013), Atillah et al (2011), Baptista et al (2011a), Renou et al (2011), Benchekroun et al (2015), and Lemos et al (2014). We use a deterministic tsunami hazard assessment (DTHA) approach to evaluate the tsunami impact in Sines (Fig. 2). We present the contribution of each scenario to the aggregate tsunami impact in MSL conditions
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