Abstract
This study aims to establish an effective approach for evaluating the safety performance of road infrastructure. Road safety levels are typically quantified using safety performance indicators. However, due to the stochastic nature of accidents, many safety performance indicators cannot adequately and completely describe reality. Therefore, predictive methods based on regression models are widely used. This approach also allows for the identification of latent risk conditions in the infrastructure, even in the absence of accidents. Among available approaches, the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) methodology is chosen for its synthesis of validated highway research and best practices for incorporating safety into both new design and rehabilitation. For this study, a preliminary new version of HSM is used. The application of this method, which combines a predictive model with observed accidents through an empirical Bayesian approach, requires a calibration process that is crucial to tailoring this method to the specific study context. In this research, the predictive model is calibrated for single carriageway roads with one lane per direction across the Italian national network. Following calibration, the safety indicators are evaluated. The results obtained according to different indicators are compared to show the importance of adopting this method to counteract the regression to the mean of observed crashes. In fact, the method, supported by empirical Bayesian analysis, enables the identification of high-risk sections of the road network, selecting more sections that would be neglected by traditional indicators based solely on observed crashes. Finally, a possible approach to prioritizing sites for inspection based both on the excess of crashes and the Safety Potential (SAPO) is proposed. In addition, SAPO is adjusted to local conditions to account for the specific context and the decreasing trend of accidents over the years.
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