Abstract
For risk assessment, two methods, quantitative risk assessment and qualitative risk assessment, are used. In this study, we identified the regional risk level for a disaster-prevention plan for an overall area at the national level using qualitative risk assessment. To overcome the limitations of previous studies, a heavy rain damage risk index (HDRI) was proposed by clarifying the framework and using the indicator selection principle. Using historical damage data, we also carried out hierarchical cluster analysis to identify the major damage types that were not considered in previous risk-assessment studies. The result of the risk-level analysis revealed that risk levels are relatively high in some cities in South Korea where heavy rain damage occurs frequently or is severe. Five causes of damage were derived from this study—A: landslides, B: river inundation, C: poor drainage in arable areas, D: rapid water velocity, and E: inundation in urban lowlands. Finally, a prevention project was proposed considering regional risk level and damage type in this study. Our results can be used when macroscopically planning mid- to long-term disaster prevention projects.
Highlights
The frequency and magnitude of natural disasters such as localized torrential rain and typhoons caused by climate change are increasing worldwide, and have resulted in massive property damage and casualties [1]
The total population, GRDP, total number of buildings, and financial independence were obtained from the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) and data on road area and river density were obtained from the Ministry of Environment (MOE)
Even if the risk levels are comparable, the damage type and cause can be different according to the topographic characteristics
Summary
The frequency and magnitude of natural disasters such as localized torrential rain and typhoons caused by climate change are increasing worldwide, and have resulted in massive property damage and casualties [1]. Joo et al [16] stated that disaster management decision-makers may be perplexed by inconsistent results for each methodology of flood risk assessment To solve this issue, a new method was proposed based on a Bayesian network, designed to support comprehensive judgment by integrating indicators and weights in major previous studies. Kim et al [17] selected assessment indicators via factor analysis and proposed a heavy rain damage risk index (HDRI) They presented the results of the risk assessment by classifying it into three risk levels for Gyeonggi-do, South Korea. Birkmann [18] mentioned that because the selection of an indicator is the most important part of process to develop an index, it should be selected through clear principles He proposed the concept of a method for qualitative disaster risk assessment.
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