Abstract

Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400–500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.

Highlights

  • Tropical and subtropical African biomes, in particular forests and savannas, have long been recognized for their important ecosystem services and associated human benefits

  • This paper presents a review of some of these newly emerging datasets alongside the fossil evidence for biotic responses to examine the insights that these palaeo-records can provide on the potential responses of African biota to projected future changes in climate

  • The palaeoecological records presented here indicate some important additional factors that need to be taken into account when attempting to determine biotic response to future climate change; these are nonlinear features that will not necessarily be determined through modelling approaches alone, and can be summarized as follows

Read more

Summary

Introduction

Tropical and subtropical African biomes, in particular forests and savannas, have long been recognized for their important ecosystem services and associated human benefits. This paper presents a review of some of these newly emerging datasets alongside the fossil evidence for biotic responses to examine the insights that these palaeo-records can provide on the potential responses of African biota to projected future changes in climate. It focuses on three regional forecast climate scenarios in Africa, namely enhanced wetness, enhanced aridity and faster rates of climate warming. Fossil evidence for spatial variations in biota in response to climate change in Sahara, West Africa, East Africa and Southern Africa is examined and discussed in the context of the information that they provide for determining current and future changes of biota to predicted climate changes

Current and future climate change in tropical and subtropical Africa
12. Bosumtwi warm and wet cold and dry
22. Namibia
Biotic responses to past climate conditions analogous to projected scenarios
Discussion
83. Kropelin S et al 2008 Climate-driven ecosystem
Findings
91. Pan Y et al 2011 A large and persistent carbon sink
Full Text
Paper version not known

Talk to us

Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have

Schedule a call

Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.