Abstract
The issue of assessing the effectiveness of a project of an ecologistic system using the criterion of «a discounted payback period», which takes into consideration the transformational changes in the project life cycle, was considered. The specific features of the life cycle of a project of an ecologistic system, in the structure of which it is proposed to include environmentally-oriented regeneration and revitalization phases, were explored. The phases of a life cycle were divided into stages, between which consecutive and parallel relations were established. The project life cycle consists of time intervals, during which from one to three stages of the project phases can run in parallel. A model of the life cycle of an ecologistic system, which shows the relations between time intervals and cash flows that correspond to the stages of the project life cycle phases, was developed. A mathematical formula for calculating the discounted payback period of a project, which takes into consideration the specific features of the formation of cash flows of separate phases of the life cycle of an ecologistic system, was proposed. The application of the formula is possible when assuming the constancy of cash flows of the stages of operational and the regeneration phases, which corresponds to the conditions of uncertainty of their forecasting at the beginning of the project. The functional dependences between the discounted payback period and cash flows during the phases of a project life cycle were studied. Depending on a phase of the life cycle, the dependence is expressed by a linear, polynomial, or power function. The identification of functional dependences makes it possible to study the dynamics of changes in the discounted payback period with changes in project cash flows, which can be used in forecasting the effectiveness of an ecologistic system project.
Highlights
Preservation of the environment today is one of the most important, urgent, and comprehensive problems on which the future of mankind and life on the planet as a whole depends
The aim of the study is to determine the dependence of the discounted payback period of a project on cash flows during the project life cycle of an ecologistic system
Experimental calculations were performed, which made it possible to identify the dependences between cash flows during the project life cycle and the discounted payback period of a project on an ecologistic system
Summary
Preservation of the environment today is one of the most important, urgent, and comprehensive problems on which the future of mankind and life on the planet as a whole depends. The high rate of growth of material production and population, which were the determining factors of civilization development in recent years, led to a dramatic increase in anthropogenic pressure on the environment. Within the concept of sustainable development, ecologistics is considered as an effective approach to the management of material and associated flows in order to reduce environmental and economic damage to the environment [3, 4]. Closed eco logistic systems make it possible to introduce the principles of the circular economy into economic activity [6, 7]. Environmentally-oriented logistic systems are a tool for introducing a circular model of the economy. The eco-destructive impact on the environment is reduced by minimizing the use of natural resources and reducing environmental pollution by production and consumption wastes [9]. Taking into consideration the specific features of this category of projects, due to their environmental orientation, is a relevant issue that requires additional research
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