Determining The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Commercial Activities in Istanbul

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the initial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on enterprises and identify differences in the effects of COVID-19 across scales and sectors. This study employed AHP to prioritize solution proposals, factor analysis to determine problem components by sectors and scales, and machine learning methods to estimate enterprise sector and scale based on survey data. The study included 255 statistically reliable samples collected between July to October 2020. Survey and comparison questions were used to determine the impact level of enterprise problems. Open-ended questions categorized pandemic-related commercial activity problems and solution proposals by enterprise scale and sector. The AHP analysis prioritized the same three problems across different scales and sectors, but machine learning-based classification analysis revealed varying criteria for determining sector and scale. Due to the fragility of developing markets public authorities expanding their economic activities during crises need to design appropriate different policies especially to protect SMEs s and keep enterprises standing. This paper presents a unique and high-quality dataset collected through a survey, examining similar issues from a historical perspective, and providing insight into the initial impacts of COVID-19 on enterprises for policymakers. The study stands out for its analysis of COVID-19 from both scale and sector perspectives, with Istanbul providing a representative sample of all sectors and scales due to Istanbul having the highest diversity among the regions in Turkey in terms of enterprises.