Abstract

Hybrid wheat (Triticum spp.) has the potential to boost yields and enhance production under changing climates to feed the growing global population. Production of hybrid wheat seed relies on male sterility, the blocking of pollen production, to prevent self-pollination. One method of preventing self-pollination in the female plants is to apply a chemical hybridizing agent (CHA). However, some combinations of CHA and genotypes have lower levels of sterility, resulting in decreased hybrid purity. Differences in CHA efficacy are a challenge in producing hybrid wheat lines for commercial and experimental use. Our primary research questions were to estimate the levels of sterility for wheat genotypes treated with a CHA and determine the best way to analyze differences. We applied the CHA sintofen (1-(4-chlorphyl)-1,4-dihydro-5-(2-methoxyethoxy)-4-oxocinnoline-3-carboxylic acid; Croisor 100) to 27 genotypes in replicate. After spraying, we counted seed in bagged female heads to evaluate CHA efficacy and CHA-by-genotype interaction. Using logit and probit models with a threshold of 7 seeds, we found differences among genotypes in 2015. Sterility was higher in 2016 and fewer genotypic differences were found. When CHA-induced sterilization is less uniform as in 2015, zero-inflated and hurdle count models were superior to standard mixed models. These models calculate mean seed number and fit data with limit-bounded scales collected by agronomists and plant breeders to compare genotypic differences. These analyses can assist in selecting parents and identifying where additional optimization of CHA application needs to occur. There is little work in the literature examining the relationship between CHAs and genotypes, making this work fundamental to the future of hybrid wheat breeding.

Highlights

  • Increasing winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grain yield and developing cultivars better adapted to climactic variability is crucial for agricultural productivity and food security

  • The improvement is attributed to greater familiarity and precision in using the chemical hybridizing agent (CHA) during the second year

  • We collected seed count data to determine the frequency of sterility for CHA-treated wheat

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Summary

Introduction

Increasing winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grain yield and developing cultivars better adapted to climactic variability is crucial for agricultural productivity and food security. The constraint in using binary results and logit or probit models (i.e. if the CHA is effective or ineffective) of adequate sterility is that they limit the ways in which a plant breeder can use the data. They may not be valid because the number of seeds per fertile head can vary greatly across and within genotypes for hard winter wheat and so modeling the counts of seed directly is ideal. Zero-inflated models assign a probability of π (called the inflation probability or mixture weight) for the wheat head to be totally sterile due to the CHA (i.e. have a seed count of zero) and allow for the possibility that a situation with no seeds may arise for other reasons such as random kernel abortion[14,16,18]

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