Abstract
In this article, the role of speed and volume of traffic on occurrence of accidents on urban highways is investigated using Fuzzy models and the accident data of Tehran urban highways is used as case study. To fuzzify the variables in scatter diagram, the notion of statistical percentiles is used for assigning the linguistic terms. To produce rules in each model, one or more variables are deemed effectively in occurrence of accidents. The evaluated number of accidents by developed models is compared with the number of observed accidents. The results of comparison represent the accuracy of each model. The model with the highest value of R2 is the best model and the variables deemed effective for that model are those which do play a role in occurrence of accidents. Comparing the effect of elements of traffic volume indicates that after the average speed, volume of light non-passenger car vehicles is more effective on occurrence of accidents on urban highways than volume of heavy vehicles and passenger cars. After that the part of volume of heavy vehicles is more prominent than volume of passenger cars in the likelihood of more severe accident. The opposite is true for no injury accidents. After prioritization of variables in terms of influence on occurrence of accidents, the authors employed the models best fitting the data with the highest value of goodness of fit to do the sensitivity analyse. Sensitivity analyse specifies the effect rate of each variable on likelihood of accidents.
Highlights
The volume of traffic is comprised of different elements which could be categorized in three groups i.e. passenger cars, heavy vehicles including minibuses, buses, trucks and trailers and light non-passenger car vehicles including taxis, pickups and motorcycles
After developing the models for predicting the number of accidents on urban highways, the predicted number of property and more severe accidents by the models are compared with the number of observed accidents for each case i.e. specific combination of effective factors
The results of comparison show the accuracy of each model which is developed based on the role of variables that considered effectively in occurrence of property or more severe accidents individually
Summary
The volume of traffic is comprised of different elements which could be categorized in three groups i.e. passenger cars, heavy vehicles including minibuses, buses, trucks and trailers and light non-passenger car vehicles including taxis, pickups and motorcycles. The part of heavy vehicles in various segments of urban and rural roads network is studied many times more than the other elements of traffic volume. The influence of the presence of heavy vehicles in traffic flow on road safety has been studied in different methods. Fuzzy Logic based models have been known as a perfect and powerful tool for modeling processes, which are complex with conventional quantitative techniques, or when the acquired information from modeling processes is qualitative, ambiguous or indefinite. Fuzzy Logic is used widespreadly for developing models and dealing with complicated systems
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