Determining the Day-to-Day Occurrence of Low-Latitude Scintillation in Equinoxes at Sanya during High Solar Activities (2012–2013)

Abstract

Plasma irregularity in the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere, which leads to ionospheric scintillation, can threaten the operation of radio-based communication and navigation systems. A method for forecasting scintillation activity is still pending. In this study, we examined the performance of ionospheric parameters, including the critical frequency (foF2), peak height of the F2-layer (hmF2), scale height (Hm) and virtual height (h’F), around local sunset from ground-based ionosonde observations, and also the characteristics of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations in equinoctial months (March–April and September–October) during high solar activities (2012–2013) at a low-latitude station at Sanya (18.3° N, 109.6° E; dip lat.: 12.8° N), China. Furthermore, the simplified linear growth rate of Rayleigh–Taylor (R–T) instability inferred from ionosonde measurements and EIA strength derived from GRACE observations were used to estimate the day-to-day occurrence of post-sunset scintillation. The results indicate that it is not adequate to determine whether scintillation in a low-latitude region would occur or not based on one ionospheric parameter around sunset. The simplified growth rate of R–T instability can be a good indicator for the day-to-day occurrence of scintillation, especially in combination with variations in EIA strength. An index including the growth rate and EIA variations for the prediction of the post-sunset occurrence of irregularity and scintillation is proposed; the overall prediction accuracy could be about 90%. Our results may provide useful information for the development of a forecasting model of the day-to-day variability of irregularities and scintillation in equatorial and low-latitude regions.