Abstract
Determining the state of magma reservoirs is essential to mitigate volcanic hazards. However, geophysical methods lack the spatial resolution to quantify the volume of eruptible magma present in the system, and the study of the eruptive history of a volcano does not constrain the current state of the magma reservoir. Here, we apply a novel approach to Nevado de Toluca volcano (Mexico) to tightly constrain the rate of magma input and accumulation in the subvolcanic reservoir. We show that only a few percent of the supplied magma erupted and a melt volume of up to 350 km3 is currently stored under the volcano. If magma input resumes, the volcano can reawake from multi-millennial dormancy within a few years and produce a large eruption, due to the thermal maturity of the system. Our approach is widely applicable and provides essential quantitative information to better assess the state and hazard potential of volcanoes.
Highlights
Determining the state of magma reservoirs is essential to mitigate volcanic hazards
Understanding the temporal evolution, size and physicochemical state of igneous plumbing systems beneath volcanoes is of paramount importance to develop quantitative prognostic models for volcanic activity[1]
To unravel such complexity and quantify parameters such as the volume of potentially eruptible magma, which are essential for hazard assessment, we rely on geophysical methods and the record of past eruptions
Summary
The observed range of ages for individual events overlaps and track prolonged zircon crystallization in the plumbing system of Nevado de Toluca (Fig. 2e). The long history of zircon crystallization with overlapping age distributions for eruptions separated by tens of thousands of years and the consistency of zircon trace element compositions for individual eruptions points towards a relatively chemically homogeneous magmatic system These results suggest that the same overall zircon population has been sampled by individual eruptions and can be interpreted to record long-term magma reservoir assembly beneath Nevado de Toluca. This shows that the true 2σ age range of the natural population lies within the interval 380–470 ka with 95% confidence a
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